Local elections usually punish governments in the middle of the term, but those held in the UK earlier this month did the opposite. The Conservatives maintained their representation, winning even in industrial labor belt strongholds, a dynamic that has somewhat solidified since the Brexit vote that coincided with the Conservative stance. Now, when the file was closed, there was no apparent reason for these voters returning to the Labor Party. This phrase is harsh enough to indicate a clear bloc in the party’s electoral appeal, but there are political reasons for this.
The first is that Boris Johnson’s conservatism is inconsistent with that of Thatcher. Just take a look at its latest legislative program announced a few days ago in the Queen’s voice: public investment in health, education, infrastructure and security. Johnson is more than comfortable with what he’s called Active stateWhich is a generous formulation of public intervention that occurred even before the pandemic knocked on the door. It is this political and legislative prescription that dries up a large part of the Labor Party’s offer, and pushes it toward yet another escape. and he? Presenting an alternative plan for Brexit from the European Union or post-Brexit, which is a mature alternative to the options that the government made in the first stage of Covid, a more clear solution for Scotland, and a clear idea about the integration of immigrants or the transition of the economy adapting to the climate crisis. It turned out that none of this had happened. Or, at least, nothing that could have passed on to the electorate had any renewed effect.
This is the second explanation for the decline in employment: a complete disconnect between the political message and the various groups. Older people moved from industrial areas to the governors armed with the hat of the legislator and the court with the European Union and the protection of the English identity; The younger ones have already dispersed the vote, although many are gradually lining up with the Greens, who are seeing continued domestic growth and, in the case of Scotland, are now key in supporting the SNP for a hypothetical second call for a referendum on independence.
The illusion that transferring power from Jeremy Corbyn to Kerr Starmer would put the party back on the path to recapture (Labor had been away from Downing Street for 11 years) resonated in the polls during the first phase of fighting the pandemic, but the success of the vaccination ended To the requirement of the indispensable strategic definition of the new leadership. The personal contradiction between Starmer and Johnson is not enough to win back votes, the jamming of letters was fatal for mobilization, and the lack of minimal relationships with European and American social democrats makes any internal statement difficult. At the moment, the only sources of protection for the Labor Party are the electoral system and Sadiq Khan’s victories in London.
If the UK had different electoral bases, we might witness the same thing happening in Germany, with the Green Party being the largest party for new generations, from active, digital and urban shifts, and expression among activists. The role of the state and the private initiative, convincingly European, but aligned with transatlantic security. Simply, with the appropriate time adjustments, it was these formulas to some extent that gave Tony Blair’s workers three consecutive absolute majorities. In this way, the party risks losing the legislative fives followed in 2024.