The article, published by Nature Communications, analyzes the 7.8-magnitude earthquake recorded last February in Turkey and Syria, which killed thousands, and notes that signs began about eight months ago.
These findings add to accumulating evidence that “at least some large earthquakes present an observable preparatory phase, and have some resemblance to theoretical and laboratory models of the failure process,” the authors assert.
The team led by the University of Potsdam in Germany found that earthquake-affected areas in Turkey and Syria experienced accelerated rates of seismic events and increased energy release than about eight months ago, and were organized into clusters within a 65-degree radius. Kilometers from the epicenter.
Although the main rupture occurred on a fault and in an area previously identified as having a very high potential for seismic hazard, preparatory signals occurred in that area and on a secondary fault, which had previously received little attention.
Some large earthquakes may represent an observable preparation phase, but given the large number of variables involved, “under the current state of knowledge, medium-term seismic warning – if possible – remains in the future of seismology,” the scientists highlighted. Stady .
The results highlight the challenges posed by detecting the preparatory phase and epicenter of large earthquakes, suggesting that a full understanding of preparatory phenomena will be essential for the development of future warning systems.
More comprehensive earthquake monitoring, combined with long-term seismic records, could improve the ability to recognize earthquake predisposition processes from other signals of regional deformation.
The authors point out that developing seismic warning systems will require more local and regional detection networks, in addition to monitoring secondary faults, which accompany major rupture faults.
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