“HeyTotal external debt payments next year in countries covered by Fitch Ratings will reach $22.3 billion. [21 mil milhões de euros]up from $21.4 billion [20,1 mil milhões de euros] 2022,” in the report sent to investors.
“We expect average public debt in sub-Saharan Africa to improve to less than 65% in 2023, after peaking at 72% in 2020, aided by the economic recovery following the pandemic, higher commodity prices and efforts to reduce the budget deficit, But this level is compared to an average of 57% in 2019, before the pandemic, and to less than 30% between 2007 and 2013,” the analysts stress.
According to an analysis of public debt in 19 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, covered by this financial rating agency owned by the same owners as the consulting firm Fitch Solutions, nearly half (42%) of the countries Fitch assigns a “rating” in the region “have a higher debt-to-GDP ratio than than 70%, while the average debt-to-income ratio will remain above 300%, twice the value in 2013,” which proves the deterioration of the economic fundamentals of the countries of the region. .
Analysts warn in the note about the deterioration of the prospects for the development of these economies, reviewing the risks that arise from the great global slowdown, high inflation, and difficult financial conditions, in addition to the general weakness of the economies due to the effects of the economic crisis. The pandemic first, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine more recently.
Fitch Ratings expects average inflation in the region to fall from 8-9% this year to 5.5% in 2023 and that GDP growth will be around 4%, close to the 3.8% average in the five years to 2020. 2019, but well. less than the growth recorded until 2014.
In the same report, Fitch Ratings warned that there are eight countries in sub-Saharan Africa that have public debt payments in 2023 that account for a quarter of external reserves, including Angola, Mozambique and Cape Verde.
Of the eight countries reporting individual reserves over the past six months, four (Angola, Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya and Mozambique) face external debt service payments in 2023 equal to more than a quarter of reported reserves, with Cabo Verde having to pay the equivalent of 23% of Foreign reserves,” according to Fitch Ratings.
Angola leads the volume of debt payments until 2025, as it always has to pay more than 6 billion US dollars annually, or about 5.6 billion euros, until 2025.
Thus, Angola, at the end of this year, will have paid 6.48 billion US dollars, which will be added to 6.7 billion US dollars next year, 6.4 billion US dollars in 2024, and 7.3 billion US dollars in 2025.
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