National Bank Poland (more precisely its decision-making body – the Monetary Policy Council) did not change interest rates at the March meeting. The key reference rate, i.e. one that is preferred by holders of slotty mortgages, is still very low, close to zero and 0.1 per cent. MBC has not changed its “crisis” measures, namely the acquisition of assets that support the economy.
MPC: Rates do not change. On the other hand, GDP should grow faster, even inflation
However, we did know the summary of the new project NBP (To be released in full next Monday), i.e. a document outlining the bank’s expectations on how the dynamics will develop PKP And inflation. The NBP expects the Polish economy to grow significantly faster this year than previously thought. According to economists, GDP growth is expected to be 3.9 percent. – 3.1 percent previously considered. In the next two years, GDP is likely to grow by more than five per cent to 5.4 per cent. (Growth here in 2022 should be slightly weaker than it was in November last year).
The path of inflation also rose to 3.1% this year. It is expected to be 2.6% earlier and next year it will be 2.8%. (In November, the NBP spoke about 2.7%), and in 2023 Swelling Is expected to be 3.2 percent. Therefore, according to the NBP, an acceleration in the pace of growth should be expected cenBut it should not be too big. “Despite the expected economic boom, this plan does not represent a significant risk of excessive inflation”, write PKO BP economists commenting on the NBP report (an important note here – the NBP sets limits to its forecasts, which economists, on average, can read the entire bank’s report Here).
Recall that the inflation target that the National Polish Bank wants to maintain is 2.5 percent. With variations above and below the 1 percent point. Breaks the 3.5 percent barrier. So you can’t see.
What about the legs? You can not believe the reduction
The NBP should monitor inflation so that when interest rates are low they can stimulate its growth. The bank is also paying close attention to GDP – here interest rate cuts should stimulate the economy (and “cheap”) Money This refers to more debt, from which funds can be used, for example, for investments, which will stimulate economic growth). Experts interpret the new plan as a signal to close the door to further rate cuts – because GDP must grow faster, and Swelling Not to be dangerous anyway.
Details in the official document will be announced on March 8, but earlier, next Friday, the NBP governor Adam Klabiski He will speak at an online conference dedicated to “assessing the current economic situation in Poland”. For a year now, the NBP has not held regular conferences after the Monetary Policy Council’s monthly meeting (they began by issuing a statement immediately after the meeting, i.e. the MPC decision at 4:00 pm on the day the announcement was made). Instead, CEO Klabiski has been organizing his presentations since the beginning of this year, before which journalists can submit questions (no questions asked in the syllabus).