Two polls on voting intentions released recently by the reference institutes, DataFolha and Inteligência em Pesquisa e Consultoria (Ipec), indicated that Lula da Silva had 48% of voting intentions, a condition that would suffice to be elected in the first round if the plenum were today. .
The former president’s good performance on the ballot has been repeated since he regained his political rights after the Federal Supreme Court overturned two convictions against him, but social investigators Rodrigo Augusto Brando and Ricardo Ismail have assessed that the numbers show the picture of the moment can change and many factors until Brazilians go to the polls.
Brando admitted that a victory for Lula da Silva in the first round would be possible, but noted that since 1989, the Workers’ Party, the party of the former president, who ruled the country four times, has not won the national round. Elections in the first round.
“In this Brazilian election history, since 1989, PT has never been able to win in the first round. It lost twice in the first round,” Rodrigo Augusto Brando said, referring to disagreements with former President Fernando Enrique Cardoso.
“Although a first-round victory scenario is likely, I think, closer to the election, former President Lula da Silva has a stronger weight against him for rejecting those voters who do not vote for Labor at all,” Brando added.
Ricardo Ismail, in turn, emphasized that the country is 10 months away from the presidential elections and that the vote of ordinary citizens should only strengthen as of the second half of 2022.
“We are very far from the moment when the vote, of course the poll should take place, but we do not yet know exactly who the candidates will be and it is not yet time for this discussion to take place. [sobre as eleições] He will come to the table in the pub, at work, at debates on television, ”emphasized the expert.
Ismail stressed that the trend maintained in 2021 gives former President Lula da Silva a huge advantage, but everything indicates that the current head of state, Jair Bolsonaro, should seek re-election, and opinion polls show that he maintains between 20% and 25% of voting intentions.
To the expert, Bolsonaro already has a real chance of being in a second round, but he would be a fragile candidate, easily defeated by the massive disapproval he had from voters at the time.
Datafolha reported that 59% of those interviewed declared that they would not vote for the current president of Brazil, while the IPEC confirmed that 55% of Brazilians said they would not vote for him.
A DataFolha poll indicated that Bolsonaro currently has 22% of voting intentions, while the governor’s Ipec indicated a preference of 21% of voters.
As for Bolsonaro’s chances of growth next year, Brando noted that an income transfer program called Auxílio Brasil, set up by the government to replace Bolsa Família, could help him earn political capital.
But the expert estimated that the incumbent president would need to change his rhetoric and actions and present himself not as a far-right candidate, but as a central politician, which he believes is very difficult given the governor’s record.
“It is possible,” he said, “but I think it’s difficult for Bolsonaro to be able to reverse what he’s lost in popularity.”
In response to a question about other opponents who might compete in the elections, the two experts noted that the so-called “third way” currently includes names such as former governor Cerro Gomez, governor of São Paulo João Doria, and former minister and former judge Sergio Moro, who have so far not succeeded in Gain the support of voters who declare that they do not want Lula da Silva or Jair Bolsonaro in government.
Brando stressed that the “third way” is hope for a third of the population who want to flee from populist candidates, but still need to integrate.
Both Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva fit a set of traits that define populists. It’s very difficult in a scenario where there are two charismatic characters – as is the case with Lula da Silva and Bolsonaro – in a socially networked society, making us appreciate any polarizing or violent rhetoric, a moderate candidate getting dropped,” highlighted Brando.
Ricardo Ismail concluded his speech by emphasizing that Lula da Silva is unified, but new factors and candidates may appear and completely change the current electoral scenario.
However, the expert highlighted that even weakened by the poor assessment of his government, “if there are many candidates for a voter who neither wants Bolsonaro nor Lula da Silva, it is likely that Bolsonaro will run for the second round, because the split prevents any of them outperforming the incumbent president in The electoral race.
Although he is the favorite to win the October 2022 elections, Lula da Silva, who was head of state between 2003 and 2011, said he would not make a decision on his candidacy until March.
“Hardcore alcohol maven. Hipster-friendly analyst. Introvert. Devoted social media advocate.”