The average temperature of the planet continues to rise, driven by greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities and the degradation and destruction of nature. In 2015, in Paris, world governments agreed that action must be taken to prevent global warming beyond 1.5 degrees by the end of this century.
From year to year, warnings emerge of new records for extreme temperatures, extreme droughts, devastating fires, and unprecedented storms, and with that, warnings multiply that we need to do more, better and faster.
Although it is still believed that all is not yet lost, and that there is time, even if little, and sufficient knowledge to achieve this goal, the window of opportunity is closing quickly and climate action is slow to arrive.
According to more than 200 researchers from International Project Global Turning PointsIf nothing is done to counter this trend, the Earth may cross at least five natural thresholds, inflection points at which small changes can lead to rapid and profound transformations, beyond which negative consequences for humanity and nature may be irreversible. Three of them could be exceeded in the next decade.
In a statement issued by the University of Exeter, which coordinated the work, scientists said this was “the most comprehensive assessment of tipping points ever undertaken” and explained that “humanity is currently on a catastrophic trajectory.”
Among the thresholds that could be crossed in the coming years, scientists highlight the collapse of large ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica, and the thawing of permafrost (or thawing permafrost). Permafrost), widespread mortality of warm-water corals and collapse of atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic.
For Tim Linton, one of the researchers, “tipping points in the Earth system represent threats of a magnitude never before encountered by humanity” and “could cause devastating domino effects, including the loss of entire ecosystems and the ability to farm.” “Social impacts including mass displacement, political instability and financial collapse.”
The investigation analyzed 26 “negative inflection points in the Earth system” and concluded that “current global governance is inadequate to the scale of the challenge,” and that maintaining the situation “is no longer possible,” with “rapid changes in the global system.” “Nature and societies are already happening, and more will come.”
“Without urgent action to stop the climate and environmental crises, societies will collapse while the natural world deteriorates,” they warn.
Despite the report’s cautionary tone, scientists believe it is possible to promote “positive inflection points”, which allow negative points to be countered and keep the planet on a sustainable path.
“A series of positive tipping points would save millions of lives,” save billions of dollars in damage from extreme climate events and allow “to begin to restore the natural world on which we all depend.”
Linton points out that positive actions have already been taken, such as enhancing the focus on renewable energy, expanding electric mobility, and moving to diets less dense in animal products.
Manjana Melkuret, from the University of Oslo who was also involved in the project, believes that concrete actions to avoid worst-case scenarios “should be the main goal of COP28.”
The researchers leave some suggestions for world leaders: ending fossil fuel emissions by 2050, strengthening adaptation mechanisms and financing losses and damages, coordinating global efforts to promote positive inflection points, establishing an “urgent global summit on inflection points” and deepening knowledge about these points. phenomena.
“Solving the climate and nature crises will require major transformations in many sectors — from changes in food systems to forest restoration,” including “phasing out the internal combustion engine,” warns Kelly Levin, of the Bezos Earth Fund, a partner. The institution in the project.
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