Russia may go bankrupt today. You have 30 days to reverse the situation

Russia may not be able to repay debts incurred abroad in the face of economic sanctions imposed by the West after the invasion of Ukraine.

Carmen Reinhart, chief economist at the World Bank, had already warned last week that Russia and Belarus too “Too close” to the default.

ends Wednesday, Two coupons for the interest of the public debt in dollars at 117 million dollars (106 million euros).

Still, Moscow will have 30 day grace period After the deadline, so the default scenario is only formalized in April. Debt default makes borrowing more difficult and expensive in the future.

Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, said Russia is facing a problem ‘deep recession’ because of the penalties.

according to passRussian Finance Minister Anton Germanovich Siluanov has already admitted Use of currency in Chinese currency (Yuan) or even in Russian currency (rubles).

Fitch has already stated that if the payment is in rubles, it will be considered hypothetical In April after the grace period.

The ISDA Committee – the International Swaps and Derivatives Association – “must decide whether or not a payment in rubles, rather than the currency in which the debt is debited, is a credit event, hypothetical”, Eric Dorr, director of economic studies at the IESEG School of Management, explains to the Weekly.

“until the It is forbidden to pay in rubles abroad He adds that he fears that overseas recipients will immediately resell the ruble for foreign currencies, thereby promoting the devaluation of the Russian currency.”

Siluanov accuses the markets of organizing a “artificial shortening”, Connection “conflicts” to foreign creditors.

Debt default is a rare scenario for Russians and has not occurred since the 1998 Russian crisis.

Its bad reputation as a debtor will make it difficult to attract foreign investment without strong guarantees, most likely Make the country more dependent on China.

If Vladimir Putin can claim victory in Ukraine, the situation will only get worse. Maintaining peace in such a hostile environment will force the Russian president to divert huge amounts of resources from the country’s budget.

However, the amount owed by the Russian government is relatively small: about $40 billion in foreign currency bonds. The biggest problem is Russian companies, which has Nearly $100 billion in international bonds.