Is the Russian invasion of Moldova in 2023 a “real danger”? “Red lights” are there, but the process won’t be a priority – Observer

“The question is not whether Russia will launch an attack on the territory of Moldova, But when will it happen?” The latest warning by the head of Moldova’s Intelligence and Security Service (SIS), Alexandru Mustiata, has raised more alarm bells within the international community, particularly when an intensification of military operations by the Kremlin is expected in early 2023.

The risk has been known for a long time, but it gained traction with the weekend’s pronouncements. To the Observer, Nadya Koval, a Ukrainian foreign policy analyst at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, explains that “Russia could theoretically invade Moldova, which would fit Russia’s foreign policy goals.” Although Diana Soler, a researcher at the Portuguese Institute of International Relations at NOVA University in Lisbon, says so, this does not seem to be a “priority” at the moment.

In an interview Sunday night with Moldovan state television, Alexandru Mustiata indicated that Moscow’s goal in Moldova is to create “Land corridor to Transnistria”, a breakaway region on the border with Ukraine, with “real and high risks” that this will soon be put into effect. His remarks support accusations made by some Western leaders in recent months that Russia will not commit itself to Ukrainian territory and invade neighboring countries that were part of the former Soviet Union.

It’s true that the day after possible Russian plans were revealed, the head of Moldova’s intelligence services ended up making a new public intervention – and backed out. in an intended message “Reassuring” the population, Mustata said that the situation in Transnistria “Stay calm” – He restated expectations the day before, saying that the separatist region should not be a theater of conflict “in the coming months”, although he noted that there would be a build-up of the offensive in western Ukraine.

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