The Endless “Aurora Borealis”, by Frederick Edwin Church, 1865 (Smithsonian American Museum of Art)
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Temperatures in the Arctic Circle have risen more than 20 degrees Celsius above normal, setting records and raising concerns about the rate of melting of Greenland’s ice sheet. A growing number of climate scientists believe it would be appropriate to declare a climate emergency because, at the current rate, global warming is expected to exceed 1.5°C.
It’s been exactly one month since I spoke on the eve of the Munich Security Conference. Since then, many wonderful things have happened, and very quickly, which makes it helpful to compare my predictions a month ago with current events.
The largest changes have occurred in the global climate system. By that I mean actual weather events and climate scientists’ understanding of those events. The main message I wanted to get across in Munich was that the global climate system depends to a large extent on what happens inside the Arctic Circle. In ancient times, the climate system in the Arctic Circle was separate from the global climate system. The wind blew in a predictable counterclockwise direction; But due to increased human intervention, the separation between the Arctic climate system and the global climate system no longer exists.
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