Catherine Connolly has taken the lead in every qualifying county head-to-head against Heather Humphreys on local radio, according to new analysis from PR intelligence platform Everhaze. Despite his withdrawal from the race, former candidate Jim Gavin remains the most-mentioned name on air, commanding over half of all campaign-related radio coverage.
Connolly’s Local Advantage
The latest Battle of the Airwaves report from Everhaze, covering the period between 25 September and 10 October 2025, shows that Connolly leads Humphreys in every qualifying county — with Dublin (+6.3 percentage points) and Limerick (+5.9 pp) emerging as the most closely contested battlegrounds. Humphreys only holds a mention lead in her home county of Cavan.
The report analysed 4,021 radio clips across 60 stations and shows, using Everhaze’s AI-powered broadcast monitoring system. The findings suggest that while national shows tend to “neutralise” candidate coverage, local talk programming is driving a sharper polarity in voter perception across Ireland’s counties.
Gavin Still Dominates the Airwaves
Although he has stepped back from the campaign, Jim Gavin continues to dominate radio discussions, accounting for 50.1% of all mentions — or 2,013 out of the 4,021 analysed. Connolly follows with 27.3%, while Humphreys holds 22.6% of the total share of voice.
Everhaze’s analysis found that national shows, particularly current affairs segments and drive-time discussions, played a moderating role in tone, whereas local talk radio created a more competitive and opinion-driven environment.
Fianna Fáil Leadership Talks Shape the Narrative
The report highlights that the Fianna Fáil leadership question has been the single most talked-about topic during the current phase of the campaign. The issue accounted for 875 mentions — representing 21% of all campaign-related radio coverage — and carried a net sentiment score of –68.7 percentage points, indicating predominantly negative framing.
According to Everhaze, this leadership debate has heavily influenced candidate coverage, often overshadowing direct policy discussion and shifting the focus of local radio towards party politics rather than individual platforms.
Everhaze CEO: “Local Talk Will Decide Perception”
Speaking about the findings, James McCann, CEO of Everhaze, said:
“At the midway point, the airwaves have been dominated by the fallout from Jim Gavin’s campaign. Tis withdrawal set the agenda and kept volume elevated. But when you strip that noise out and look at the head-to-heads, the race is tighter than the topline suggests, with Catherine Connolly leading Humphreys across every qualifying county. As we enter the final two weeks, the battleground is clear: national shows will steady the candidates narrative, but local talk will decide perception.”
McCann’s comments underline a critical trend identified by Everhaze — that while Gavin’s presence still shapes the national conversation, local engagement is increasingly driving voter sentiment. With the campaign entering its final stretch, both remaining candidates are expected to intensify appearances on regional and community radio to influence undecided voters.
Tracking the Airwaves
Everhaze, an Irish-built PR intelligence platform, provides real-time media analytics across radio, print, and online outlets in Ireland and the UK. The company uses a combination of broadcast capture and AI-driven sentiment analysis to map who is being discussed, where, and in what tone.
Its Battle of the Airwaves tracker, launched for the 2025 Presidential campaign, offers a week-by-week breakdown of candidate performance on radio. The tracker measures:
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Share of voice across national and local stations
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County-level exposure showing where candidates are ahead or behind
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Sentiment trends highlighting positive, neutral, or critical coverage
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“Programme battlegrounds” where margins between candidates are minimal
The data provides communications professionals and political observers with a detailed understanding of how public narratives evolve through broadcast media.
Outlook: Momentum Shifts to the Final Stretch
As the campaign moves into its final two weeks, the Everhaze findings suggest that while Gavin’s earlier dominance continues to shape the national tone, the momentum between Connolly and Humphreys is narrowing. With Connolly holding modest but consistent leads across local airwaves, and Humphreys relying on strongholds such as Cavan, the final stage of the contest may hinge on which candidate can better mobilise local engagement.
For broadcasters and analysts alike, the next phase of Everhaze’s Battle of the Airwaves will offer further insight into whether national neutrality or local partisanship ultimately defines the 2025 race.
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